Barbara Yaffe, Vancouver Sun, October 3, 2006
Results from the "super weekend" of voting for Liberal delegates to next month's leadership convention point to a likely win for veteran Quebec cabinet minister Stephane Dion.
Others doubtless will argue differently. But a clear-headed analysis of detailed voting results suggests front-runner Michael Ignatieff's support -- at 30 per cent -- will not carry beyond the first ballot.
Ignatieff is the darling of the party establishment, much as one-time leadership aspirant Kim Campbell was of Tory backroomers in her day; and we all know how that story ended.
Any way you look at it, Ignatieff lacks the majority result he'd need to snare the prize after the initial round of voting.
The political newcomer is destined to be overtaken in white-knuckle balloting, scheduled for Dec. 2 at the Palais de Congres in Old Montreal.
That is because Ignatieff has run a mediocre campaign that has polarized the Liberal membership. And because he hasn't given delegates confidence that he can capture the imagination of the broader electorate.
Most damaging has been his quasi support for the Iraq war and the Afghan offensive, policy areas where a lot of Grits are looking for leadership that would confront rather than bolster the Conservatives' position.
The former Harvard prof has little room to increase his support, encouraging a closer look at the three other front-runners.
Weekend balloting revealed former Ontario cabinet minister Gerard Kennedy is viewed as a serious contender but lacks appeal in Quebec, possibly because of a perception his French isn't good enough. Heck, Joe Volpe got more support from Quebec delegates -- 2.4 per cent -- than did Kennedy, with 1.6 per cent.
Liberals simply do not elect leaders who don't play well in Quebec.
And now, more than ever, following the party's loss of reputation in Quebec due to the sponsorship debacle, party members will be fretting big time about currency in that province when they select the new leader.
Bob Rae, former Ontario premier and a New Democrat before his political metamorphosis, meanwhile, is weak in all-important Ontario, where he governed during a recession and came away smelling like rotten cabbage. He received just 17 per cent of Ontario delegate support.
In fact, he and Kennedy, immediately following the super weekend, got into a slanging match over their respective appeal in the two heavyweight provinces, suggesting their respective camps could start alienating the other. That, in turn, could lead to a situation in which both men might look to throw their support to a third person on the big day.
The dynamics of the race between now and early December indicate that a compromise candidate will be sought, a second-favourite person who can slowly gain strength on the convention floor.
That person would appear to be Dion who, importantly, after the weekend balloting can claim credible support in his home province, with a stamp of approval from nearly 30 per cent of Quebec delegates.
There are other reasons why Dion is the most comfortable choice.
He's unburdened by any ideological tag the way Ignatieff is seen as leaning to the right, or Rae, perceived as leaning left.
In the next election, Liberals know their main task will be to keep the Harper Conservatives from retaining power. They need to hang on to every right-leaning Liberal-inclined voter out there. Rae can't help them do that.
There's less worry about the left; the NDP has been stagnant since the January election.
Consider, too, that Dion possesses a longer, assuring record, as a federal Liberal in good standing, than any of his three main competitors.
He served with distinction as intergovernmental affairs minister, his federalist bona fides well established. He then went on to impress environmentalists as environment minister.
Even when he was booted from cabinet briefly by prime minister Paul Martin, the classy MP refused to succumb to sour grapes. He played no politics and was soon back in cabinet, recognized as a loyal and principled Liberal disciple.
It's unclear at this point how many ballots it will take the new leader to taste victory. What is clear is that the new leader will be Stephane Dion.
3 Comments:
If I was a liberal, I'd vote for Dion. So when DO the liberals finally vote for their leader?
haha, if you were a liberal. what about as a human? (i think it's the wo/man as much as it is the party)...?
But one cannot vote for liberal leadership unless they are a card-carrying liberal. And I agree with Mel -- if I were in the position to vote, he would receive mine. :)
Post a Comment
<< Home