heureusement, ici, c'est james

The last time Kosovo declared independence, the region descended into chaos; NATO sent in the tanks to quell a Serbian military response.

So what's different this time?

...not the man leading the independence movement. Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci is the former leader of the same Kosovo Liberation Army which had a hand in claiming 10,000 lives.

...not the Albanian's call to the West for protection. Granted, NATO's already there in Serbia, 16 000 strong. The Albanians look to Bush for solidarity. They want recognition of independence from the EU and the US, and it sounds like they'll get it.

What's different this time is Russia's posture. Vladamir Putin's been waving his (ahem) before the international community in support of his Slavic bretheren. He argues that Kosovo's announcement could set off a wave of similar declarations in breakaway regions around the world, including those in Russia.

We can't yet speculate just what kind of action-plan these allies have drafted, but anything that further pushes Russia away from the West can't be good for global peace. The reaction of the West to Kosovo's declaration of independence will be used as leverage in Russia's bid for increased global influence.

This event could well have further-reaching repercussions than we're prepared to admit.

UPDATE:

The US and all major EU powers have backed Kosovo's declaration, but some European states - including Spain - have not. Canada's still on the fence, though Dion has made some intelligent remarks on the matter:

Mr. Dion said the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo was "the best solution under the circumstances," and asked Canada to join its allies, such as the United States, in supporting the former Serbian province's move. But, he made a point to stress that Kosovo's situation is unique and it has no common ground with Quebec's separatist movement.

"You have here a people that were oppressed for years by the former government of Serbia, where NATO forces are present to protect the minorities and where there is no possible reconciliation in sight. It's a very unique situation and despite all of this, they don't have the international recognition that would allow them to join the United Nations, since Russia has a veto," Mr. Dion said from Quebec City.

Only a day after the declaration, there were reports that "an explosion rocked a UN building in northern Kosovo while another unexploded hand grenade was discovered near a hotel that housed EU officials." Serb protesters then began an attack on the US embassy in Belgrade.

Two days after the declaration, NATO sealed the Kosovo border as busloads of Serbs arrived to ransack the border crossing. This seems to be part of Serbia's planned response, with one BBC correspondent describing the effort as "a carefully planned and coordinated action." Days later, the protests are growing and the attack on the US embassy persists.

Labels: Kosovo, NATO, Serbia, Vladamir Putin

For the all the wind blowing from Conservative and NDP partisans - that NATO serves no purpose but to point guns and shoot - NATO's literature doesn't bend to their argument:

"the fundamental role of NATO is to safeguard freedom and security of its member countries by political and military means," furthermore adding, "The Alliance... recognises the importance of political, economic, social and environmental factors in addition to the indispensable defence dimension."

NATO's new strategic concept (1999) also emphasizes the notion of "common commitment," stating that "The fundamental guiding principle by which the Alliance works is that of common commitment and mutual co-operation" and "no single Ally is forced to rely upon its own national efforts alone in dealing with basic security challenges."

This seems to be at odds with the way a minority of NATO members, Canada among them, have been forced into carrying a disproportionate burden in Afghanistan.

In the face of this public information, Jason Kenney went to bat as the government spinmaster, regardless of his lack of authority on the Foreign Affairs file. In this Toronto Star article, he said: "NATO is a military alliance. When you talk about a NATO intervention, you are clearly and explicitly talking about a military intervention."

After reading NATO's strategic concept, Kenney's comments seem to be a Conservative assumption of NATO's role based on a cold-war hangover. Though Kenney asserts that Dion "doesn't understand what NATO does," it appears that Kenney hasn't done his own homework on the role of the organization, however ineffectively it's been practiced.

For its part, the NDP seem to be taking their PR cues from the Conservative government, as NDP defence critic Dawn Black did little more but echo Kenney's comments.

Labels: Afghanistan, cons, NATO, NDP, Stephane Dion